Guest blog from Mike Wiliamson

Posted on Posted in Members Blog

Hi All,

Michael here, most of you probably won’t know me because I’m quite quiet in the groups but just a quick bit of background on me and my way of trading before we dive in to a few of the charts that I’m currently watching.

I have been trading for almost two years now and I started on binary options trading (if you don’t know what that is don’t waste your time finding out lol) and took me a month to realise that I was essentially gambling after using multiple signal services and trying to trade alone.

After this I moved across to Forex where I was self-teaching for a couple of months and started to make some headway when I then found Charlie. I’ve been with Charlie for almost 18 months now (one of his longest running clients I believe) and he’s been a massive help to me and would now consider him a good mate of mine! So for everyone, newbies or not, make sure to utilise Charlie because he is such a massive help and always happy to.

I’ve tried hundreds of different ways of trading before finally finding my own and what works for me so if you haven’t found yours yet don’t get too disheartened it’ll come. For me the way I trade is I like to do my analysis and find my set ups on the higher timeframes, so daily & weekly (4hr a bit) and then execute these set ups on the lower timeframes to sniper the best entry possible for good pip moves.

Anyway, enough about me lets get onto the charts!

EURUSD: The pair of consolidation. Over the last few months we have seen this pair consolidate within the blue box region. This range was broken a few weeks ago with a big sell off of the Euro however we have now re-entered this consolidation and seem to be staying within. As far as a position for the pair goes I would want to see a move towards the top of the range which is in line with the 1.1750 key level and see some nice rejection for a short back towards the bottom.

Ideally on this pair I would like to see a break & re-test of the bottom of this range and the 1.1500 key level to find some kind of real trend and a clear move to head back towards the lows of 1.3000 and then move beyond making a new low. The scenario for a long would be the same on the basis of a break and re-test of this range to the upside bringing in a bull rally to go and make new highs above 1.1750.

 

EURJPY: As you can see this pair has been stuck in a daily descending channel for a long time now. Towards last week we made a nice move off the resistance of this channel brining a drop below 130.00 to the next supportive region at 128.60. As you can see on my chart I was expecting a bounce off this level and a move back up to re-test and find resistance at the 130.00 key level and daily 61.8% fib.

Over the long term I am expecting a move below 125.00 and price to go and touch the bottom of the channel at around the 123.80 level where price will be need to be watched carefully for another bull run or a break and further decline however I am expecting a series of lower highs and lower lows to be made along the way as I’ve marked with arrows on the chart. For me I will be waiting for this pair to hit 130 and the 61.8% fib to look for rejection and a good sell position.

USDCAD: USDCAD was stuck in this daily bull flag that you can see marked on my chart since the end of June. Yesterday we broke out of this with a nice strong bullish day after the US manufacturing PMI came out well above forecast after a run of good US data in recent times increasing the likelihood of a September interest rate even more which investors will like to see. This move also saw price break and close above the monthly R1 pivot at the 1.3180 level and currently we are re-testing and holding above this level.

 

I am expecting this resistance turned support to hold and see the bull rally continue for a little bit long up to the 1.3250 key level where I will be looking for rejection to sell on a daily pullback to make a higher low before moving up further. I am expecting price to move back to one of two areas, the first being the previous resistance at 1.3100 as support to bounce higher or we could see price drop that little bit further and see price re-test the daily bull flag as support before starting another bull rally to 1.3000 and beyond.

GBPJPY: Price on this pair has been stuck in a weekly descending wedge since October 2017 and recently we broke out of this wedge due to a big sell off of the Sterling with the GBP receiving some poor data, Brexit uncertainty’s and the Conservative’s not having faith in their leader and our PM Theresa May.

 

After the breakout of this wedge structure we broke back in where we made a daily lower high as you can see on my chart at the cluster fib region of the weekly 61.8% and daily 78.6% and after finding resistance at this area we saw a nice drop of around 195 pips. This week on this pair we have consolidated so far not finding much movement at all which is unusual for GBPJPY so for finding a position to enter I will be waiting for price to break out of its current consolidation and below the 142.50 key level where dependent on a re-test and rejection I will look to sell this pair as I believe it will move below the 140.00 key level making a new low and declining further to the monthly S2 at the 136.40 level.

Anyway that’s all from me for now; hope this has been helpful and insightful for you all regardless of your skill level and length of time in Forex. Just remember I am only giving my insight of these pairs and how I would like to trade them at the end of the day its all down to personal preference! Any feedback on this would be helpful, as I would like to do more in the future.

Cheers!

Mike.