Weekly Market Overview and Insight into Chill Forex Analysis 11/03/18

Posted on Posted in Weekly Analysis

AUDUSD – Bounced off the 61.8 Fib level from last swing Low of the December move – Daily forming a triangle, Friday bullish engulfing candle due to upward pressure on wages

Pivot – 0.7863

Support 1 0.7680

AUDJPY – JPY weakened on a dovish report from the BoJ – broken out of a downward channel monthly pivot is a 38.2% retracement  from the highs set, expecting a deeper correction unless risk in world economy has upwards pressure, formed higher low now on daily

Pivot – 84.50

Support 1 – 81.01

AUDCAD – Finished in between R2 and R1 – R2 pivot shows big rejection, Friday indecisive candle, but closed above R1 – expecting continuation down ater Thursdays bullish candle, back down towards trendline and monthly pivot – RSI become oversold at 70 on daily and rejected away expected downward pressure

R2 – 1.0120

R1 – 1.0040

Pivot – 0.9915

AUDNZD –  We could now see 1.08 tested which would be 61.8 Fib from recent LSH on the Daily chart, 1.0850 would be a 78.6% retracement and give a good short entry, 50 and 200 day moving average is indicating a downward move also. But after a strong bullish candle Friday we would see a further move up before more downside with long term targets being 1.06 and could go as far as 1.04

Pivot level 1.0785

S1 1.0626

AUDCHF – 5 consecutive Bullish days last week, CHF real loser of last week, could be back on its way to test the 200 day moving average at 0.7530 also 61.8 fib from yearly high but currently just below monthly R1, created a new high on daily but looking for it to pullback and now create a higher low, before a continuation upwards, as AUD central bank are more bullish then CHF at present, dollar strength is key to this, short term pullback looks good to break out level

R1 0.7470

Pivot 0.7370

R2 0.7615

 

GBPJPY – Strong Bullish candle Friday, broke the 200 Day moving average but still closed back below it, currently sat at the 50% fib, a retest of the trend line now looks inevitable around the 149.50-150 level as next upside target 150 also represents monthly pivot level. 4H TF looks like a Bear flag is developing for further downside

Pivot – 150.05

S1 – 143.50

Huge range on these pivots

GBPUSD – Now sitting comfortably back in the channel it was in from the all time lows of 2016, we are currently making low lows and lower highs on the Daily timeframe, last week there was a retest of the 4 Hour Triangle for the previous week and rejected from their to a tee. Which was where the monthly pivot off, im expecting further downside to this pair to the bottom of that channel, or to at least previous resistance at 1.36 which is where the S1 pivot level is

Pivot – 1.3930

S1 – 1.3600

GBPAUD – 1.7550 looks like a good downside target – broken recent daily trendline, ideally would like to short at 1.7750 – so it can form a lower high, getting to oversold levels on small TF so a retracement is inevitable. 1H and 4H, we are currently trading well above the 200 da MA, indicates still bullish for institutional investors so a short term trade would be favourable

GBPCHF – New high created on the Daily timeframe, like most CHF pairs its broken out, 5 Bullish days, bounced off the 200 Day moving average, expected more bullish moves once a higher low is formed gives a good buy price, 1.3070 is a good price to buy on the monthly pivot level, 1.3220 can be a good upside Target one with 1.3450 are an extreme target

GBPCAD – Expecting to continue to monthly pivot at 1.76, previous support also, Strong bounce off monthly R2 and two strong Bearish candles to end the week, 1.7850 would be a great sell price but I can see it falling short of there before more downside, 1.74 area could be a good long term target

GBPNZD – Currently trapped in a Triangle on the daily time – a break out would confirm which way its going but you can trade from the low to the high until you get the break out, using smaller timeframes for further confirmation

USDCAD – Expecting H and S neckline to be retested at 1.29 before further downside, RSI on 4H and 1H approaching oversold levels – 1.27 could be good downside target just before the 200 day moving average.

Pivot 1.2650

R1 – 1.3030

USDCHF – Friday Doji could see it slow down as we have made a higher high now on the daily Timeframe, slowed at monthly R1 at 0.9550 area, 0.9400 would be an ideal buy price down at the monthly pivot and to confirm a higher low could be made, currently sat on the 50% Fib retracement, 200 day MA just above the Monthly r2 pivot, 0.9650 could be a good long target, USD is fundamentally stronger then the CHF.

USDJPY – Last week it bounced strongly off a 2 year trend line, as we are in a huge Triangle on the daily with the top of the Triangle in at the 112 area – Great long term target, should risk stay low in the world. Pivot level at 107.50 and R1 at 109.50 could be good areas for longer term targets, we are still in a bearish trend though, as we have not beaten the previous high on the daily. Good buy entry could be 106.20 for upside targets, be careful trading this pair

NZDUSD – Looked as though a Double top was forming but we have seen a bounce off the neckline, so we can deem ourselves as consolidating on the daily timeframe and buy the lows and sell the highs once we see evidence in the turnaround of candlesticks at the respected levels of 0.7400 foe sells and 0.72area for buys,

EURAUD – Sellers clearly in control after making a new high, strongly rejected off the R1 monthly pivot, previous low is 1.5610 – Daily candles look aggressive sell off, il monitor at monthly pivot but feel it will break through at 1.5635, trading well above the 200 day moving average so a stronger correction is likely, but on the daily timeframe we have entered back into the previous consolidation area so it is likely to also slow down a bit in here. 1.5480 could be good target for a short at the monthly S1

EURCHF – 4H head and shoulder break and retest of the neckline, good short position it is currently in, made a new high on the daily and has rejected off the Monthly R2 and closed below the last two days, reaching overbought levels on the RSI, bounced off the 78.6% Fib which shows a huge correction,

EURJPY – We have managed to close below the key level of 131.50 and below the 200 day moving average, it has been caught in a range over the last week between 130.50-132 so we are currently caught in a descending triangle, a break out south could see a continuation back down to 2018 lows of 129.50 and beyond

NZDCAD – We are currently in a bullish trend with a bullish trend line acting as good support, but we have had 2 bearish days and looks like we could be going down for a retest on this pair and more then likely beyond that, the trend line could be touched about the 0.9250 area, if we see a break and close below then I will be look at holding down to 0.9150. before we reach the 50MA

NZDJPY – Currently at the 61,8% Fib of LSH on the daily timeframe, but also only at 38.2% fib from the 2018 high, I’m expecting a deeper correction before more downside. Monthly R1 and 200 da Ma at 79.60 and could be retested as an Extreme profit level. Price action candles are strong and Bullish

CHFJPY – Both safe haven currencies, most bearish central banks

Price action shows a bullish piercing candle on Fridays closes and with the RSI being near oversold levels it could be time for a correction in the pair, last two 4H candles Friday show sellers are still evident with an extremely weak CHF at the moment, if it was to continue up then 114 would be a good target or a great sell position, long term downside targets could go as low as 108.

CADJPY – 85 is a great upside target, Fundamentals and Technicals strongly supporting this move, buyers are clearly in control on the Daily timeframe, trading way below the 200 day moving average and the 50 day MA, so expecting a closer return to these, the 85 level is also the 38.2 Fib retracement area which would warrant it as a good target.

 

EURGBP – Still inside its huge daily channel and was rejected off the top of it last week and we closed below the 200 day moving average, sellers controlling the daily timeframe, the bottom of the channel would take us down to the 0.8680 area, but we have monthly pivot 0.8830 and monthly S1 0.8745 to get through get there, could be a bit of a slower mover

Gold – 4H TF shows us an Inverted Head and shoulders pattern with the right shoulder currently forming looking like it could head back to the neckline at 1340, a break could see us start to create new recent highs on gold, but we must monitor USD strength as golds price is dependent on this. Broken a bearish trend line on the 4H timeframe and retested it also

 

USOIL – currently in a bull flag on the 4H timeframe ranging between 60-63 USD – so these are great buy and sell prices, if we break out this channel then id be expected us to retest the recent highs at and around the $66 dollar a barrel area

EURUSD – Daily Bull flag, Sell the highs and buy the lows, we are trading below the monthly pivot and the monthly S1 is 1.2066, a break above will see the 10 year trend line hit towards 1.2650 taking out previous highs and we will see sellers come back into the market. We did have an evening star form on Thursday and Friday remained indecisive.